Shaggin' Flies #2

Bust out that brand new Ballparks of the Major Leagues calendar and the ol' trusty CD of John Fogerty, because it's time for a new year in the place where baseball is always discussed (except during pitching changes). It's time for 2005 in Center Field. That means it's time to shag some flies.

Our "pilot" column last July was received well by those of you who received it, although only one person had the gumption to strap on the cleats and chase down some flies of their own. Hopefully this year you won't be content to watch me safely from the bench.

Let's get started…

I start out in Cincinnati simply because that's where I started out as an 8-year-old. The old Riverfront Stadium/Cinergy Field. Now the Great American Launching Pad. As a Reds fan, I'm excited the Reds finally got into the free agent game by actually signing an "upper-tier" name, but this one is fraught with ill omens. To sign a pitcher whose G/F ratio has never been higher than 0.67 in 6+ years of major league service is an act of titanic ignorance. Or negligence. Take your pick. It's probably a little easier to give up 43 HRs calling Citizens Bank Park home than it is at GABP, but not much. Plus, 23 of Milton's 43 were on the road last year anyway. Let's look at this:


Milton in 2003

• at CHI: 5.1 IP, 3 HR
• at HOU: 6 IP, 3 HR
• at STL: 5 IP, 1 HR

Notice a trend? All teams that finished in front of the Reds for the NL Central title last year. Milton's WHIP better stay low, or it's bye bye 4.xx ERA and hello to 5+.


Carlos Beltran follows Pedro Martinez to the Mets, with possibly Carlos Delgado to follow later this week. It's possible--just possible--that the Mets will overspend and finally have a decent team to field. Don't forget that the rotation is still thin though. (Pedro, Glavine, Benson, Trachsel, Zambrano)

Speaking of the Yankees not getting Beltran--is it possible George looked at the checkbook and said, "You know what? Gettin' a little tight. Better pass." 'Cause that's gotta be it. There's nothing else to explain it. Even with their pitching woes, he stills owes Giambi, Jeter, and A-Rod somewhere in the neighborhood of 352 million dollars, so to date, we all know he hasn't been worried about payroll. Shelling out 48 million for a 41-year-old pitcher (even if one of the best) now ties up four-tenths of a billion dollars in four players whose average age is 33.5. And even if 3 of those players are potential Hall of Famers, you have to see the Yanks are getting top heavy even by their own standards.

That huge gear-grinding sound you hear is Houston owner Drayton McLane and general manager Tim Purpura, trying to figure out who to get to fill Carlo Beltran's locker. Rumors are many--Alfonso Soriano from Texas, Mike Cameron from New York (whose spot Beltran takes), Randy Winn from Seattle, Jose Cruz Jr. from Tampa Bay--I'll stop there. I'd take Winn of that group depending on what I had to give up. Trying to roster Soriano when they have Chris Burke basically ready to give it a go (and he's got promise) whiffs of desperation and starts a vicious cycle that the Yankees and Red Sox are near the end of--selling off the future for NOW, NOW, NOW. I like the character of this Houston team. Don't start down that road, guys.

Free agent starting pitching. Anyone left? Okay, anyone who'll make an impact left? Derek Lowe just went to the Dodgers. That leaves Estaban Loaiza. Despite some of the idiotic pitching contracts that have been signed this offseason, Loaiza's '04 performance leaves even his market value quite low. Can he give you anything? His BB/9 in '04 was his worst in 5 years, follow that up with the 5.8 K/9 number from his pre-Cy contender days, add in the most flyballs he's ever allowed in one season in a career that dates back to 1995, and you've got a big mess. His 5.70 ERA wasn't as bad as it looked, but you can't attribute all of last year to bad luck. He'll rebound, but expect him to go back to a neighborhood a little better than the one he was in when no one knew his name--that is, unless he gets signed by a team with an excellent offense. Then his value increases a little.

Shawn Estes signed with the D-Backs, who continue their quest to sign the most fortunate pitchers in baseball. Maybe they figure the luck will rub off on the rest of the team. Russ Ortiz, now Estes. Do you realize that Shawn Estes won 15 games last year? With a 5.84 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Don't forget a measly 5.2 K/9 and a putrid 4.7 BB/9. Are there casinos in Arizona? They should bar the doors if they even catch a glimpse of Estes. Sure, he may have left Coors, but it's still quite easy to go yard at the BOB. He's a groundball pitcher though, so I'd expect the number to drop, but he'll never help a team unless that 1.1 K/BB ratio comes way up.

Just how dangerous would it be to sign Magglio Ordonez? Probably about as dangerous as attempting to take Randy Johnson's picture in Manhattan. Scott Boras cancelled a workout session last year so the White Sox had no choice to decline Maggs arbitration. There's no way that workout would've hurt Ordonez in any way considering how teams have reacted to so little proof of good health. There's a guy still on the market whose season lows from '99-'03 were .301 in average, 29 in HR, 99 in RBI, and .510 in SLG, and now that he's a free agent, only the Tigers and Cubs are interested? I'm pretty sure the Tigers are interested in me. Yeah, Boras saying that Maggs was "ready" and that he didn't need to prove it really didn't hurt his market value at all, did it? Anyone can say they're ready. Heck, I'm ready. I'd steer clear of Maggs for now. He'll have to prove it with more than a few sheets of paper that could've been signed by Dr. Seuss for all we know.

I wanna go back to this Milton thing for just a moment and then I'll let it go. Let's pretend, for a swift moment, that we're Reds GM Dan O'Brien. Let's say we're in the market for a free agent starting pitcher and we've got money to burn. Let's say we want a lefty who will help us for the next few years in a tough hitter's park where the ball really takes off. Let's do some comparison-shopping.

• Eric Milton Career ERA: 4.76 (4.75 in '04)
• Odalis Perez Career ERA: 4.00 (3.25 in '04)
  
  
• Eric Milton Age: 29
• Odalis Perez Age: 27
  
  
• Eric Milton Career IP: 1188.1
• Odalis Perez Career IP: 803
  
  
• Eric Milton Career K/BB: 2.55 (2.1 in '04)
• Odalis Perez Career K/BB: 2.60 (2.9 in '04)
  
  
• Eric Milton '04 Run Support: 6.5 (10th in MLB, 14-6 record)
• Odalis Perez '04 Run Support: 3.3 (next to last in MLB, 7-6 record)
  
  
• Eric Milton Career GB/FB Ratio: 0.59
• Odalis Perez Career GB/FB Ratio: 1.68
  
  
• Eric Milton Eventual Contract: 3 years/25.5 million
• Odalis Perez Eventual Contract: 3 years/24 million

Who would we sign, if we were Dan O'Brien (if both of these guys were free agents, which at the time of the Milton deal, they were)?

Hmmm...

Alright, that's enough practice for today. It's only January after all. But while pitchers and catchers don't report until mid-February to Spring Training, it's never too early for you to report to Center Field in the comment section and shag a few flies as well.

Put me in, Coach.