Shaggin' Flies #1
Nothin' like gettin' in a little practice with the defense. . .let's get started.
I keep hearing people complaining about competitive balance in baseball, but those people should read the paper. Sixteen of MLB's 30 teams are 6 games or less out of 1st. Add 7 more than are 7 games or less out of the Wild Card. That leaves only 7 teams who are basically playing to fill out the schedule. Culprits? Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle, Colorado, Montreal, and Arizona. Bud, if you've done one thing right, it's the Wild Card.
Just how bad are the D-Backs? Worse than the Expos. How did that happen? How about this? Left-handed batters are hitting .294 against their staff for the season. That's with two lefty starters, and one of them is RJ. Can't blame him though. Leftys are hitting .149 against him. How about that other lefty, Casey Fossum? Try .351. Now that's terrible.
What about RJ? A lot of people say if he goes to the Yankees, it's bad for baseball. Yeah, the Yanks gotta lotta money, but this team acutally needs him. Who are they gonna start in the postseason after Vazquez? Is Brown gonna be healthy? Is Mussina? What about Headcase Contreras? He looks okay since his family got here, but is that enough? Who's next, if one (of more) of those can't go? El Duque? Probably no. Lieber? With his 4.32 K/9? Definitely no. Wait, I got it! Tanyon Sturze! And here I was worried.
Other trades that should happen? Houston should deal Beltran if he won't re-sign. Kent too. They're done. They look bad. The Astros are an asteroid heading in one direction. It ain't up.
Speaking of Beltran, he's hit .244 since joining the 'Stros. What's wrong? Real bad luck. 19% hit rate. His previous 3-year average is 32%, for the uninformed. Baseball HQ could teach you about hit rate. Outstanding site. Do yourself a favor. Join today.
Isn't it infuriating to see your team blow chance after chance after chance? The Reds have left 9+ baserunners in 4 of their last 7 games. Record? Somehow it's 3-4.
Bud said he might stop alternating leagues for All-Star Game sites. As if we needed another thing related to the ASG to bicker about. Stop it already!
While I'm fuming, MLB needs to get the Expos a home. I realize there's a lot to it, but they're dragging their feet...and their knees...and their thighs...
Bold Throw #1: The San Diego Padres will win the NL West.
Cliff Lee lost only his 2nd game of the year yesterday. Shouldn't be surprised. He walks way too many hitters (4.23 BB/9). When your team scores more runs than anyone in the AL you can be 10-2 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.7 K/BB.
Jake Peavy is 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA since returning from the DL. That sounds good, but his K/BB per month is lowering and remember that he pitched 100 more innings last year that he did in '02. That's quite a jump for an arm to handle. A second-half fade (not implosion) could be in the cards.
Brad Wilkerson is hitting .228 with an OBP of .459. He walks in 16% of his ABs. Along with 17 HR, 7 SB, and 53 R (on the Expos), it's a wonder more than 47% of ESPN fantasy owners don't have him. Guess they can't handle the AVG anchor.
Mark Buehrle is a man. His K/BB is 3.8, good for 4th in the AL, behind only Radke, Schilling, and Santana. With that Sox O behind him, he's a great guy to have. Only problem? He's 25 and already has three 220+ IP seasons. This year he's on pace for 250. I hope Ozzie Guillen knows what he's doin'.
Who is Bucky Jacobsen? Well, I'll tell ya this, the power is for real. It's an outside shot, but don't be surprised if he finishes the season with 20 HR. And an AVG of .240. The Mariners may have found their new DH just in time to see Edgar retire.
Bold Throw #2: The Atlanta Braves will win the NL East for the 12th consecutive time. I'd make a bold throw about the NL Central, but declaring anyone but St. Louis will win that division would be just like hurling one into the stands. In the words of the Anchorman Ron Burgundy, "That's just dumb."
Not sure if anyone is outside of Philly, but I wouldn't worry about Kevin Millwood. He's just had a little bit of bad luck, which accounts for that 4.72 ERA. His K/BB for June & July is 2.67. The buzz on him lately is that he's not pitching very well. The numbers don't lie though. I'd want him on my fantasy team.
Talk about making the most of dire circumstances. Dave Roberts has stolen 9 bases this month despite a .164 AVG and .246 OBP. That's 9 SB in only 15 times on base. You think Cesar Izturis sees many pitchouts?
What happened to Brandon Webb? Last year: 10-9, 2.84 ERA, ROY candidate. This year: 3-11, 3.82 ERA, candidate for nothing (nothin' good, anyway). His G/F's almost exactly the same (3.41 vs. 3.44 last year), run support is also almost identical. How about these three glaring differences, though:
- K/BB. 2003: 2.53. 2004: 1.32
- Road ERA. 2003: 2.27. 2004: 4.15
- BAA vs. RH. 2003: .167. 2004: 2.34
Watch his BBs. When (if) they decrease, we'll start to see the Webb we all thought we drafted this year.
Bold Throw #3: Despite just getting back from the DL after knee surgery, Phil Nevin will still hit 30 HRs, although he'll only drive in 85-90 because of the Padres measly OBP at Petco (.321). On the road, they have an NL-high OBP of .351 and Nevin also hits 62 points better on the road (.325 vs. .263 at home). Bad news though. After this weekend, the Pads have a 13-game homestand. Maybe they just really like those sand-colored unis. I do.
Finally, don't look now, but the Texas Rangers have the 3rd best record in baseball. That's despite being under .500 on the road. Stay away from the Ballpark at Arlington. Those Rangers are mean at home.
Well, that's my workout for today. Be sure to take a few flies (and bold throws) yourself in the comment section. We all need practice, right?
