Pitching Change

Here is the first of what will probably be an ongoing feature here in Center Field. If you've played outfield before (or even if you've astutely observed a game you're attending), you may know that many times during a pitching change the outfielders will congregate in center field and stand next to each other while the pitcher warms up. If you've never been privy to these conversations, they're not usually about baseball (at least when I roamed center in my playing days, they hardly ever were). I used to relish those conversations, because most of the time they were random and comical, even if brief--you didn't have all day between pitchers (although as a fan, sometimes it seems that way).

Anyway, sure there aren't any official games until April 3, and Spring Training won't even kick off until March, but here in Center Field we've got our first pitching change of the season. Just a couple things that I found that I couldn't let pass you by.

First there's this. This Romanian couple met over the Internet, and after a 3-month relationship--over the Internet--they decided to get married. Fine, you say. Happens all the time. Sure, whatever.

Most couples aren't so happy they met over the Internet that they name their kid "Yahoo" though. Yahoo Serious? Yes, I am. Lucian Yahoo Dragoman.

Check the quote from Cornelia, the mother: "We named him Lucian Yahoo after my father and the net, the main beacon in my life." Now, who's the beacon? Your father? Or the In. Ter. Net? 'Cause unless this woman doesn't understand dangling modifiers, I think she's talkin' about the net.

I love the net. It's the reason I get to post here. However, if the Internet ever becomes the--what was it?--"main beacon in my life", I will proceed out to the garage, pick up a hammer, and obliterate any and all transmissions on my computer from the motherboard to the F7 key. Then, I'll go on a hike or something.

I know most kids don't like their middle names--I hated mine all the way through grade school and it's a perfectly fine middle name. However, I don't envision a day in the future when this kid tries the pick-up line, "No, no…you can call me Yahoo."
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If there's one thing the citizens of Earth are getting exceedingly better at, it's at developing ways to allow us to become lazier. Enter the Samsung SCH-S310.

This beauty has a built-in "accelerometer", which seems to be a fancy word for Etch-A-Sketch. If you want to hang up the phone, all you have to do is shake it twice. If you want to you dial a number, you can simply draw the number in the air. Is this really necessary? When was the last time you wanted to call someone but thought, "You know, I'd love to call, but it's just too much of a strain to dial the phone. I can't press a button right now--I just ate. Plus, if I did work up the sweat, when we got done talking, then I'd have to press the End key. I'd have to go bed early for sure! I'd be wiped. Nah, I'll just tell Mom Happy Mother's Day next week. She's gotta come by and do my laundry anyway."

The phone also offers what I guess is the Bose option, turning itself into, what the article calls, a "beat box". If these geeks are calling it a beat box, they obviously never had one growing up. It also has games using motion, and get this--can analyze a user's movements to give them diet advice. That probably goes something like, "For a fat burning workout, dial 3 to 5 numbers manually a day. For a cardiovascular workout, dial up a telephone order customer service line with several levels of automated menus."

Finally, the phone has a compass. I'm not arguing that one. Of all the unnecessary things my phone does have, I gotta admit a compass would be cool.

Anyway, back to the game...

Shaggin' Flies #2

Bust out that brand new Ballparks of the Major Leagues calendar and the ol' trusty CD of John Fogerty, because it's time for a new year in the place where baseball is always discussed (except during pitching changes). It's time for 2005 in Center Field. That means it's time to shag some flies.

Our "pilot" column last July was received well by those of you who received it, although only one person had the gumption to strap on the cleats and chase down some flies of their own. Hopefully this year you won't be content to watch me safely from the bench.

Let's get started…

I start out in Cincinnati simply because that's where I started out as an 8-year-old. The old Riverfront Stadium/Cinergy Field. Now the Great American Launching Pad. As a Reds fan, I'm excited the Reds finally got into the free agent game by actually signing an "upper-tier" name, but this one is fraught with ill omens. To sign a pitcher whose G/F ratio has never been higher than 0.67 in 6+ years of major league service is an act of titanic ignorance. Or negligence. Take your pick. It's probably a little easier to give up 43 HRs calling Citizens Bank Park home than it is at GABP, but not much. Plus, 23 of Milton's 43 were on the road last year anyway. Let's look at this:


Milton in 2003

• at CHI: 5.1 IP, 3 HR
• at HOU: 6 IP, 3 HR
• at STL: 5 IP, 1 HR

Notice a trend? All teams that finished in front of the Reds for the NL Central title last year. Milton's WHIP better stay low, or it's bye bye 4.xx ERA and hello to 5+.


Carlos Beltran follows Pedro Martinez to the Mets, with possibly Carlos Delgado to follow later this week. It's possible--just possible--that the Mets will overspend and finally have a decent team to field. Don't forget that the rotation is still thin though. (Pedro, Glavine, Benson, Trachsel, Zambrano)

Speaking of the Yankees not getting Beltran--is it possible George looked at the checkbook and said, "You know what? Gettin' a little tight. Better pass." 'Cause that's gotta be it. There's nothing else to explain it. Even with their pitching woes, he stills owes Giambi, Jeter, and A-Rod somewhere in the neighborhood of 352 million dollars, so to date, we all know he hasn't been worried about payroll. Shelling out 48 million for a 41-year-old pitcher (even if one of the best) now ties up four-tenths of a billion dollars in four players whose average age is 33.5. And even if 3 of those players are potential Hall of Famers, you have to see the Yanks are getting top heavy even by their own standards.

That huge gear-grinding sound you hear is Houston owner Drayton McLane and general manager Tim Purpura, trying to figure out who to get to fill Carlo Beltran's locker. Rumors are many--Alfonso Soriano from Texas, Mike Cameron from New York (whose spot Beltran takes), Randy Winn from Seattle, Jose Cruz Jr. from Tampa Bay--I'll stop there. I'd take Winn of that group depending on what I had to give up. Trying to roster Soriano when they have Chris Burke basically ready to give it a go (and he's got promise) whiffs of desperation and starts a vicious cycle that the Yankees and Red Sox are near the end of--selling off the future for NOW, NOW, NOW. I like the character of this Houston team. Don't start down that road, guys.

Free agent starting pitching. Anyone left? Okay, anyone who'll make an impact left? Derek Lowe just went to the Dodgers. That leaves Estaban Loaiza. Despite some of the idiotic pitching contracts that have been signed this offseason, Loaiza's '04 performance leaves even his market value quite low. Can he give you anything? His BB/9 in '04 was his worst in 5 years, follow that up with the 5.8 K/9 number from his pre-Cy contender days, add in the most flyballs he's ever allowed in one season in a career that dates back to 1995, and you've got a big mess. His 5.70 ERA wasn't as bad as it looked, but you can't attribute all of last year to bad luck. He'll rebound, but expect him to go back to a neighborhood a little better than the one he was in when no one knew his name--that is, unless he gets signed by a team with an excellent offense. Then his value increases a little.

Shawn Estes signed with the D-Backs, who continue their quest to sign the most fortunate pitchers in baseball. Maybe they figure the luck will rub off on the rest of the team. Russ Ortiz, now Estes. Do you realize that Shawn Estes won 15 games last year? With a 5.84 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Don't forget a measly 5.2 K/9 and a putrid 4.7 BB/9. Are there casinos in Arizona? They should bar the doors if they even catch a glimpse of Estes. Sure, he may have left Coors, but it's still quite easy to go yard at the BOB. He's a groundball pitcher though, so I'd expect the number to drop, but he'll never help a team unless that 1.1 K/BB ratio comes way up.

Just how dangerous would it be to sign Magglio Ordonez? Probably about as dangerous as attempting to take Randy Johnson's picture in Manhattan. Scott Boras cancelled a workout session last year so the White Sox had no choice to decline Maggs arbitration. There's no way that workout would've hurt Ordonez in any way considering how teams have reacted to so little proof of good health. There's a guy still on the market whose season lows from '99-'03 were .301 in average, 29 in HR, 99 in RBI, and .510 in SLG, and now that he's a free agent, only the Tigers and Cubs are interested? I'm pretty sure the Tigers are interested in me. Yeah, Boras saying that Maggs was "ready" and that he didn't need to prove it really didn't hurt his market value at all, did it? Anyone can say they're ready. Heck, I'm ready. I'd steer clear of Maggs for now. He'll have to prove it with more than a few sheets of paper that could've been signed by Dr. Seuss for all we know.

I wanna go back to this Milton thing for just a moment and then I'll let it go. Let's pretend, for a swift moment, that we're Reds GM Dan O'Brien. Let's say we're in the market for a free agent starting pitcher and we've got money to burn. Let's say we want a lefty who will help us for the next few years in a tough hitter's park where the ball really takes off. Let's do some comparison-shopping.

• Eric Milton Career ERA: 4.76 (4.75 in '04)
• Odalis Perez Career ERA: 4.00 (3.25 in '04)
  
  
• Eric Milton Age: 29
• Odalis Perez Age: 27
  
  
• Eric Milton Career IP: 1188.1
• Odalis Perez Career IP: 803
  
  
• Eric Milton Career K/BB: 2.55 (2.1 in '04)
• Odalis Perez Career K/BB: 2.60 (2.9 in '04)
  
  
• Eric Milton '04 Run Support: 6.5 (10th in MLB, 14-6 record)
• Odalis Perez '04 Run Support: 3.3 (next to last in MLB, 7-6 record)
  
  
• Eric Milton Career GB/FB Ratio: 0.59
• Odalis Perez Career GB/FB Ratio: 1.68
  
  
• Eric Milton Eventual Contract: 3 years/25.5 million
• Odalis Perez Eventual Contract: 3 years/24 million

Who would we sign, if we were Dan O'Brien (if both of these guys were free agents, which at the time of the Milton deal, they were)?

Hmmm...

Alright, that's enough practice for today. It's only January after all. But while pitchers and catchers don't report until mid-February to Spring Training, it's never too early for you to report to Center Field in the comment section and shag a few flies as well.

Put me in, Coach.

Shaggin' Flies #1

Nothin' like gettin' in a little practice with the defense. . .let's get started.

I keep hearing people complaining about competitive balance in baseball, but those people should read the paper.  Sixteen of MLB's 30 teams are 6 games or less out of 1st.  Add 7 more than are 7 games or less out of the Wild Card.  That leaves only 7 teams who are basically playing to fill out the schedule.  Culprits?  Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle, Colorado, Montreal, and Arizona.  Bud, if you've done one thing right, it's the Wild Card.

Just how bad are the D-Backs?  Worse than the Expos.  How did that happen?  How about this?  Left-handed batters are hitting .294 against their staff for the season.  That's with two lefty starters, and one of them is RJ.  Can't blame him though.  Leftys are hitting .149 against him.  How about that other lefty, Casey Fossum?  Try .351.  Now that's terrible.

What about RJ?  A lot of people say if he goes to the Yankees, it's bad for baseball.  Yeah, the Yanks gotta lotta money, but this team acutally needs him.  Who are they gonna start in the postseason after Vazquez?  Is Brown gonna be healthy?  Is Mussina?  What about Headcase Contreras?  He looks okay since his family got here, but is that enough?  Who's next, if one (of more) of those can't go?  El Duque?  Probably no.  Lieber?  With his 4.32 K/9?  Definitely no.  Wait, I got it!  Tanyon Sturze!  And here I was worried.

Other trades that should happen?  Houston should deal Beltran if he won't re-sign.  Kent too.   They're done.  They look bad.  The Astros are an asteroid heading in one direction.  It ain't up.

Speaking of Beltran, he's hit .244 since joining the 'Stros.  What's wrong?  Real bad luck.  19% hit rate.  His previous 3-year average is 32%, for the uninformed.  Baseball HQ could teach you about hit rate.  Outstanding site.  Do yourself a favor.  Join today. 

Isn't it infuriating to see your team blow chance after chance after chance?  The Reds have left 9+ baserunners in 4 of their last 7 games.  Record?  Somehow it's 3-4. 

Bud said he might stop alternating leagues for All-Star Game sites.  As if we needed another thing related to the ASG to bicker about.  Stop it already!

While I'm fuming, MLB needs to get the Expos a home.  I realize there's a lot to it, but they're dragging their feet...and their knees...and their thighs...

Bold Throw #1: The San Diego Padres will win the NL West. 

Cliff Lee lost only his 2nd game of the year yesterday.  Shouldn't be surprised.  He walks way too many hitters (4.23 BB/9).  When your team scores more runs than anyone in the AL you can be 10-2 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.7 K/BB. 

Jake Peavy is 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA since returning from the DL.  That sounds good, but his K/BB per month is lowering and remember that he pitched 100 more innings last year that he did in '02.  That's quite a jump for an arm to handle.  A second-half fade (not implosion) could be in the cards.

Brad Wilkerson is hitting .228 with an OBP of .459.  He walks in 16% of his ABs.  Along with 17 HR, 7 SB, and 53 R (on the Expos), it's a wonder more than 47% of ESPN fantasy owners don't have him.  Guess they can't handle the AVG anchor. 

Mark Buehrle is a man.  His K/BB is 3.8, good for 4th in the AL, behind only Radke, Schilling, and Santana.  With that Sox O behind him, he's a great guy to have.  Only problem?  He's 25 and already has three 220+ IP seasons.  This year he's on pace for 250.  I hope Ozzie Guillen knows what he's doin'.

Who is Bucky Jacobsen?  Well, I'll tell ya this, the power is for real.  It's an outside shot, but don't be surprised if he finishes the season with 20 HR.  And an AVG of .240.  The Mariners may have found their new DH just in time to see Edgar retire. 

Bold Throw #2: The Atlanta Braves will win the NL East for the 12th consecutive time.  I'd make a bold throw about the NL Central, but declaring anyone but St. Louis will win that division would be just like hurling one into the stands.  In the words of the Anchorman Ron Burgundy, "That's just dumb."

Not sure if anyone is outside of Philly, but I wouldn't worry about Kevin Millwood.  He's just had a little bit of bad luck, which accounts for that 4.72 ERA.  His K/BB for June & July is 2.67.  The buzz on him lately is that he's not pitching very well.  The numbers don't lie though.  I'd want him on my fantasy team. 

Talk about making the most of dire circumstances.  Dave Roberts has stolen 9 bases this month despite a .164 AVG and .246 OBP.  That's 9 SB in only 15 times on base.  You think Cesar Izturis sees many pitchouts?

What happened to Brandon Webb?  Last year: 10-9, 2.84 ERA, ROY candidate.  This year: 3-11, 3.82 ERA, candidate for nothing (nothin' good, anyway).  His G/F's almost exactly the same (3.41 vs. 3.44 last year), run support is also almost identical.  How about these three glaring differences, though:

1. K/BB.  2003: 2.53.  2004: 1.32
2. Road ERA.  2003: 2.27.  2004: 4.15
3. BAA vs. RH.  2003: .167.  2004: 2.34

Watch his BBs.  When (if) they decrease, we'll start to see the Webb we all thought we drafted this year.

Bold Throw #3: Despite just getting back from the DL after knee surgery, Phil Nevin will still hit 30 HRs, although he'll only drive in 85-90 because of the Padres measly OBP at Petco (.321).  On the road, they have an NL-high OBP of .351 and Nevin also hits 62 points better on the road (.325 vs. .263 at home).  Bad news though.  After this weekend, the Pads have a 13-game homestand.  Maybe they just really like those sand-colored unis.  I do. 

Finally, don't look now, but the Texas Rangers have the 3rd best record in baseball.  That's despite being under .500 on the road.  Stay away from the Ballpark at Arlington.  Those Rangers are mean at home.

Well, that's my workout for today.  Be sure to take a few flies (and bold throws) yourself in the comment section.  We all need practice, right?